World Cup 2026 Knockout Bracket
The live Round of 32 → final bracket, filling in after every group game, with our model’s win probability on each tie (and FIFA’s exact Annex C third-place slotting). Pick a team to trace its road to the final, or run a what-if on where it finishes its group.
This bracket is built by the same model that picks our World Cup Team of the Tournament.See the XI →As it stands — places aren’t final, so slots update after every match. Third-place qualifiers use points → goal difference (fair-play tiebreaks aren’t modelled).
Tap any decided tie for our prediction — win probability and most-likely score.
Best third-placed race — top 8 qualify
World Cup 2026 bracket — FAQ
How does the World Cup 2026 knockout bracket work?
48 teams are split into 12 groups of four. The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout — the Round of 32 — which then runs through the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final.
What are the 495 third-place combinations?
Only 8 of the 12 third-placed teams qualify, and which Round of 32 tie each one is slotted into depends on which groups they come from. FIFA pre-defined all 495 possible combinations (that's 12-choose-8) in Annex C of the regulations — and this bracket applies that exact table, so the third-place ties are always correct.
When do the 2026 World Cup knockouts start?
The Round of 32 runs 28 June – 3 July 2026, the Round of 16 from 4 July, quarter-finals 9–11 July, semi-finals 14–15 July and the final on 19 July 2026.
How are the bracket predictions calculated?
Each tie shows our own statistical model's win probability — built from squad strength and results so far, with a Poisson scoreline model and penalty-shootout resolution. It's the same model that picks our live World Cup Team of the Tournament, so the bracket and the XI tell one consistent story.
The real story is the team, not the bracket.
See the World Cup’s best XI — picked live by the same model, updated after every match, with the reasoning shown for every pick.
See the World Cup XI →